Fundamentals drive the markets... Here is what we could see happen in 2023...

1. Inflation reversal - possible downside for the US Dollar. Rising inflation and inflation fears drove the USD higher in 2022. Now that inflation is coming down and is more under control, we could see USD downside throughout 2023.

2. Global recession trades - this is already priced in, as the recession has been so well broadcast over the last few months. What isn't priced in is if the recession doesn't happen or is much deeper than expected. Look out for opportunities on CHF and USD pairs - CHF and USD strength if the recession is worse than expected. The opposite if no recession crystallises in 2023 and if no recessions are expected in 2024.

3. Russia-Ukraine war escalation/de-escalation trades - hopefully, we see an end to this war. Either way, we could see EUR and USD pairs impacted. USD strength and EUR weakness, if there is escalation. The opposite if the war ends.

4. GBP recovery trades(?) - sterling is undervalued (it is looking cheap). Possible GBP upside throughout 2023, as stability returns to the UK. GBPCHF, GBPJPY and GBPUSD could provide strong upside opportunities, depending on the outcome of points 1 and 2 of this post.

Obviously, anything could happen - this is the current outlook as of 5th January 2023, things could look very different in a month!

Wishing you all the best for 2023!