This is my high risk, long term carry trade for 2023 (opened in 2022, looking to add to my position further).
The swap rate is very attractive - to provide some insight, I have received a 3% account increase since opening my first long position in 2022, through daily interest receivables.
The Fundamentals... Turkey has potential. Exports are climbing. The country needs more stability and greater global confidence - Turkey is greatly lacking both. I believe that the currency is so heavily short, that any sign of monetary policy change could cause the Lira to rocket. Potentially creating some large volatile upside moves.
With the possibility of a global recession, the Lira could also see buying momentum, as emerging markets often perform well during times of international recession.
Current Technical Reasons... Price is nearing all-time lows and daily horizontal support. TRYJPY is also testing bearish channel support area .
Don't get me wrong, the Lira could fall much further - it has been in extreme decline for around 15 years! This is considered a high risk trade.